Tall tales growing taller

It’s a kind of cultural joke that fishermen are less than completely truthful about the fish they catch. Arms outstretched: “it was this big”; “you should have seen the one that got away, it was huge”. The amusement derived by the non-fishing masses is not entirely based on a myth. I’ve encountered many anglers that either exaggerate their catch or entirely make it up. You can tell this by the dodgy smiles as they tell their tall tales, or by confirmation (or lack of) by a third party. I’ve even heard coarse match anglers make claims so grand as to be obviously fraudulent. Such claims are usually unverifiable of course.

We live in an age of political lies, counter lies and gaslighting. Maybe, then, anglers feel more comfortable in stretching their fellow anglers’ credulity. Lately I’ve been aware how catch rates appear to increasing amongst the fishermen I meet on the bank — catch rates, that is, reported there and then. In an earlier post I commented on meeting a well turned out fly fishermen looking as though he’d wafted down from a fishing tackle website, a digital image made flesh. I see more of these nowadays. Anglers of old generally looked as though they’d just emerged from a compost heap. I put this down to the guiding phenomenon. Those fishermen willing to shell out a few hundred quid on advice will not pinch the pennies over kitting themselves out. Thing is, if you look the part you’ve got to act the part. So the chest-wadered day-ticketer I met the other day, bearded and capped, cheerfully said he’d caught a few trout and grayling, only small ones, he added, just to wear his expertise a little more lightly.

Now on this particular stretch, I get to see the catch returns. Typical catches are one or two fish, or none. Usually if someone gets more, they fall over their landing nets to get in a return — always nice to spread the good news. That day no returns were submitted. Naturally, there may be ways to dredge out a few tiddlers with a nymph in hot August weather if you want your fishing to be hard work with little reward but I suspect this practitioner of the gentle art was being a little artful.

All the professional fishy experts might be adding to the general level of skill out there, but it strikes me they are also adding to expectations which mean ever taller tales. I also wonder — oh infamy! oh sacrilege! — whether a few guides might just be prone to the same lapse in short term memory. After all, they do have a crackerjack reputation to maintain.

Probably not worth anymore asking smartly dressed anglers what they’ve caught. You know the answer beforehand. Next time I might tell you about the dozen double-figure trout I caught on a size 20 fly with 8X line in the space of an hour. Then again I might not.

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Still missing

Out with the old investment banker, in with another. The Missing Salmon Alliance (who?) has a new chair, Matthew Fleming of the Fleming banking dynasty who replaces David Mayhew, retired Cazenove banker. Whether Mayhew achieved much in his stint is unclear. Maybe he persuaded some wealthy people or organisations to stump up but there is no list of such donations on the MSA’s website.

July’s T&S interviews new man Fleming who offers a lot of platitudes but little else. It seems having oodles of money is somehow considered a qualification for these positions. Fleming’s day job is to help the loaded spend and pass on wealth to their kids. Can’t really see how this skill transfers to staving off the extinction of salmon. Probably helps bring it on if anything.

Fleming’s ‘first major initiative is a state-of-the-nation report on Atlantic salmon’. Sound familiar? I think we already know the state of the salmon — dire. Shuffling the cards around the table a bit more will not achieve much. If Fleming could use what clout he has to make the government take concrete action that would be useful. At the end of the article he says something along those lines. Let’s hope he does.

The question that has Fleming and company chasing their tails is why are the salmon quickly vanishing. I have pointed out that illegal fishing is a leading suspect along with bycatch. The only fisheries scientist I’ve seen to take the bycatch option seriously is Sophie Elliott. She is the lead author on a recently published research paper with several co-authors, only one of whom is part of an outfit that falls under the MSA umbrella. This is mainly about work on the River Frome that counts returning adult salmon. No surprise they find that only a few percent return at best. At least it shouldn’t be a surprise because terrible marine survival has been known about for many years, hence the population collapse; but the paper presents this finding as something almost new.

Stephen Jay Gould, the late renowned palaeontologist and evolutionary biologist (and a bit of a whizz at stats, incidentally) once observed how errors in textbooks were propagated into new books because authors drew heavily on the old without giving enough thought to the validity of the contents. Something similar could be said about biologists and statistics. Authors such as Elliott tend to repeat analyses from other similar studies because that’s considered to be the way it’s done. The big problem with any research on salmon coming home from sea is the time it takes to collect the data and its sparseness. Elliott et al try to test the influence of a range of factors from water temperature to the sub-polar gyre index, itself derived from a complex methodology, on the likelihood of a salmon returning. The paper is sparing with the detail, especially the crucial factor sample size. To have meaning, any stats analysis requires an adequate sample size, which needs to be even larger when multiple factors are put in the mix. The only reference is in a supplementary table of statistical output and the number looks very small indeed. Crank the handle and swallow the numbers might be the motto here.

The graph of some interest is this

It suggests that as sea ice extent goes up, smolt survival rate goes down. The authors speculate that melting sea ice produces more cold water which suits the salmon better. My thought is that colder conditions means more sea ice, but oceanic systems are very complex. Who knows? And with the concern over the amount of data, the graph may not mean much.

Elliott does include bycatch in the list of test variables but the sample worries apply, and whether commercial landings are a suitable proxy is questionable. I suspect salmon caught this way are chucked back over the sides (to expire). The paper surmises that bycatch ‘appears to be low’. Illegal fishing is not even mentioned.

The paper does sound an optimistic note, suggesting that because endangered species like the bluefin tuna is now recovering, we could do the same for salmon. Of course, the reason tuna stocks fell so steeply was overfishing: sushi scoffers love them. Once this stopped they recovered. I still think it’s a fair bet that human fishing is the culprit, despite the closure of legitimate fisheries. In conclusion the authors suggest ‘climate mitigation measures to safeguard salmon’. We can’t even do that to save ourselves at the moment. And they suggest improving water quality to ‘support and build population resilience to anthropogenic pressures.’ Frankly this is all very obvious and possibly too late.

Fish will never be resilient to the anthropogenic pressure of being netted out of the sea and finishing up on a dinner plate somewhere. Once again I say, find out whether this is happening before faffing about with any more decade-spanning research projects. Perhaps Matthew Fleming and friends can put up the cash to fund some marine policing. That’s what really is missing.

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